Australia’s birth rate is taking a double hit as one in four women aged 18 to 45 say they will not have children, while most women who do intend to have kids say they will have smaller families than in the past. Source: The Age.
The nation’s fertility rate – the expected births per woman – last peaked in 2008 at 2.02 but it has since fallen by 25 per cent to a record low of 1.48 in 2024. A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed for the population to be replaced from one generation to the next without migration.
The fertility rate is a key driver of future population and age structure. Lower fertility means fewer workers entering the labour force over time, with consequences for workforce dynamics and the tax base needed to support an ageing population. In Australia, the effects of lower fertility have been offset by migration.
Resolve Political Monitor polling shows the cost of raising children, housing affordability and worries about the world’s future are all working to limit intended family size for many young people, or to deter them from becoming parents altogether.
The results show middle children are becoming increasingly scarce in Australia. Only 9 per cent of those aged 18 to 45 years reported they have three or more children.
Single-child families are becoming more common; 25 per cent of those aged 35 to 45 reported having one child, 10 percentage points higher than those aged over 45 (15 per cent).
Among the under-45s surveyed who said they chose to have one child, the most common reasons for that preference was the cost of child-rearing (53 per cent), “one is enough” (52 per cent) and a desire to concentrate efforts and resources on a single child (40 per cent).
KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley says the high cost of housing and the growing prevalence of apartment living has contributed to smaller family sizes, especially in big cities.
The latest figures show Australians had 23,000 fewer babies in 2024 than in 2018 – even though the total population rose by about 2 million during that time.
The fertility slump is not unique to Australia – many nations in Europe and parts of Asia have had far steeper declines, triggering warnings of a “demographic winter” in some. South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate, at around 0.8.
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The biggest worry that Australians express about having children (By Matt Wade, The Age)
