Almost 145,000 Australians receiving support for autism on the National Disability Insurance Scheme are expected to be removed by the end of the decade, internal estimates show. Source: The Guardian.
From 2028, almost two-thirds of the 241,000 participants set to lose access to the NDIS will be aged 18 or under, health department documents released under freedom of information laws show.
The changes are part of the Albanese Government’s endeavour to get the NDIS “back on track” financially and are expected to pass when parliament returns next month despite fierce criticism from advocates and politicians.
The government estimates the $52 billion-a-year scheme will more than double in cost to $117 billion a year in a decade’s time without intervention.
People with autism are the fastest-growing cohort of the NDIS, making up 42 per cent of the entire scheme. The majority (68 per cent) of autistic participants who were given access to the scheme in the quarter ending in December 2025 were under 14.
The Health Department expects 241,000 NDIS participants will eventually be shifted off the scheme by June 2031 following the introduction of the functional capacity test, to keep the number of participants at about 600,000.
During that period, an additional 105,000 will be stopped from entering the scheme.
The eligibility changes, among other proposals, are expected to reduce the scheme’s growth rate to just below 2 per cent over the next four years – a significant drop from its peak of 23 per cent in 2021-22.
Of the 241,000 no longer eligible for the NDIS in five years under the changes, 60 per cent, or 144,600, will have autism or developmental delays listed as their primary disability, an internal executive brief within the Health Department showed. Sixty-four percent, or 154,240, will be aged 18 and under.
The NDIS minister, Mark Butler, has repeatedly said the scheme is only intended for people with “significant and permanent disability”.
The department’s brief shows the government acknowledges the changes might not leave everyone better off but insists they are necessary for the NDIS’s long-term viability.
FULL STORY
Almost 145,000 Australians will lose support for autism under NDIS reforms, documents reveal (By Sarah Basford Canales, The Guardian)
