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Nearly 122,000 people on the national priority system were waiting for a home care package last month (Bigstock)

As many as 300,000 elderly Australians will be on the waitlist for assistance at home by 2030, according to new expert modelling of Australia’s redesigned aged care system. Source: The Guardian. 

Kathy Eagar, a former adviser to the aged care royal commission and a University of New South Wales adjunct professor, has forecast demand for in-home packages under Labor’s changes to the national aged care system, now due to come into force from November 1.

Using Australian Bureau of Statistics population data and waitlist projections, Adjunct Professor Eager finds a shortfall of more than 171,000 places by June next year –an unmet demand of 31 per cent.

The waitlist, which grows each year by about 30,000 places, is forecast to reach more than 301,000 by June 2030, representing a shortfall of 44 per cent.

Figures included in the 2025-26 federal budget papers show a 27 per cent increase in residential aged care spending and just a 0.3 per cent increase in new support at home packages over the four-year forward estimates period.

Separately, documents tabled in Senate estimates hearings last week show that at the end of September, nearly 122,000 people on the national priority system were waiting for a home care package.

The figure has risen from 96,709 at the end of June this year.

Professor Eagar has joined groups, including community organisation Meals on Wheels, in calling on the Government to maintain the existing Commonwealth Home Support program, set to be rolled into the new system. It provides entry-level care for seniors at home.

Greens aged care spokesperson Penny Allman-Payne said Labor had not released enough new home care packages, warning elderly people would continue to die while waiting for assessments and care packages to begin.

Aged Care Minister Sam Rae said the Albanese Government was working to address growing demand in the system.

“Our government is embarking on this once-in-a-generation reform to ensure every older Australian can get the care they need, when they need it,” he said.

FULL STORY

Up to 300,000 Australians will be on aged care waitlist by 2030 under new changes, modelling shows (By Tom McIlroy, The Guardian)